A General Overview of Major Geopolitical Events
2024 has been a rollercoaster so far, and it’s only been one month! How crazy the current times have to be that one month into a year, we already have major geopolitical news making rounds on our TV screens and social media timelines. From Russia to Taiwan, to the US and Palestine, major propaganda is taking place. Some major headlines of 2024 until now are the following.
Taiwanese Elections 2024
The 2024 Taiwanese elections are a geopolitical chess move affecting actors worldwide. Think about it: Taiwan's vibrant democracy awaits vote results. Democratic Progressive Party wins narrowly. This impacts the delicate US-China dance, but it's only a drop in the world affairs pond.
The DPP's triumph will bring continuity and dissent. They stick steadfast despite China's expanding influence, even as they cozy up to democratic allies. The US is closely monitoring events ahead of its elections.
Unfortunately, Taiwan's Parliament is fragmented and has no single-party dominance. What's next? Taiwan may face decision-making delays due to this division. As for China? As ever-vigilant neighbors, they will exploit weaknesses to propagate their narrative of Taiwan's declining democracy.
The outcome of this high-stakes game affects Taiwan. Will they be able to weather these stormy waters, or will global politics overwhelm them? Time will tell.
UNSC Faces Backlash
Before October 2023, we all thought UNSC had the big guns, but guess who was wrong? Yeah, you and us, and probably the whole world. The ongoing not-so-pleasant conditions between Israel and Palestine lifted several curtains and unmasked many two-faced parties. However, the exposement of the UNSC remains the biggest one.
With the latest terror assault, the UN Security Council found itself in a precarious situation. The most important thing they could have done was to demand an end to the butchery by calling for a ceasefire. There have been almost 22,000 casualties among Palestinians, with around 9,000 children among them, yet the UNSC has failed to demand an end to the violence in Gaza.
The UN General Assembly voted decisively in favor of a ceasefire, but the UN Security Council, who were supposed to be the stars, stayed put in their roles. The uncertainty and hatred of even the most powerful nations may impede their ability to exert influence in global politics, highlighting the complexity and paradoxes inherent in the field.
Pak vs. Afg Tension
The increasingly tense geopolitical scenario between Pakistan and Afghanistan goes beyond weather. Pakistan is naturally concerned about Afghanistan's plans to dam major rivers like the Kunar.
This narrative has another twist. The Tehrek-e-Taliban-Pakistan disagreement makes anxiety thicker than winter fog. Pakistan fears Afghan support for the Taliban as it navigates these turbulent waters. Pakistan's crackdown on unauthorized Afghan immigrants complicates matters. Afghanistan feels stuck and may dam the Kabul River alone. This bold approach might change the game, raising fears.
The region is on the brink of diplomatic tensions and political unrest. India may perceive an opportunity to further its interests as a vigilant observer, aggravating this geopolitical problem.
The warzone Afghan administration may feel that the standoff benefits it more than it loses. However, a Kabul River dam may harm local communities and preexisting issues.
Pakistan and Afghanistan must communicate and identify the true issues if they wish to avoid escalation. International mediation may help calm these surges. The position is dangerous, and what occurs next might influence peace.
Crude Oil Price Dropping Steep
Political tensions and global growth prospects affect the crude oil business 2024, traversing difficult terrain. OPEC's output cuts didn't stop oil prices from falling 13% in 2023. Many market fundamental influences caused year-to-month price changes.
The US NYMEX oil price started 2023 at $80 per barrel, plummeted to $64 by May, then temporarily increased in October due to the Israel-Hamas conflict and falling US equities. While prices rose briefly, they fell again before the year ended.
West Asia is crucial to oil production and transportation; thus, fresh geopolitical threats are expected to raise oil prices. The lower global growth outlook and higher-than-expected supply from non-OPEC countries, mainly the US, impacted the oil market last year.
In May and November, OPEC plus nations curtailed production to stabilize the market and boost prices, but increased oil supply from non-OPEC countries, mainly the US, countered their efforts. By 2023, the US was the world's top oil producer, producing about 13 million barrels daily, and expected to rise. The oil market soon absorbed the EU and G7's restrictions on Russian oil. Russia became India's top crude oil supplier last year after rerouting most of its oil supplies to Asia, mainly China and India.
Chinese economic troubles in the property industry, exports, debt, unemployment, and investment hindered their oil consumption despite being the world's second-largest user.
Demand-supply dynamics will affect oil prices in 2024. Current market fundamentals imply a large price rise is unlikely until Middle East tensions escalate. Higher US production compensates for OPEC-plus output shortages, but additional production cutbacks or Middle East tensions might affect the price.
Weak global growth, especially from China and Europe, may restrict large price hikes. A constant or lower US Federal Reserve attitude on inflation and interest rates might boost oil consumption and economic development.
Due to several variables, US WTI futures prices may range between $64-98 a barrel in 2024.
Russia Sees ‘Potential’ in Africa
The international relations is paying attention to Russia's geopolitical aspirations in Africa. Russia offers new economic prospects, and African leaders are shifting their attention away from Western and European partnerships. Aligning with development objectives and election promises, this change is a component of adjusting to the rapidly evolving, multipolar globe.
Vladimir Shubin, a professor at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute for African Studies, sheds light on critical problems in Russia's connections with Africa. Mining, transportation, infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism are becoming the focal points of economic cooperation rather than political ideology. This next level of involvement is about more than simply getting to know each other; it's also about highlighting successes and meeting growth requirements.
Within reciprocal cooperation, African nations are urged to investigate investment prospects in Russia, and Russia is encouraged to do the same with them. There is a growing disparity between African and Asian states regarding development speed. How the two areas deal with these possibilities and threats will determine the trajectory of Russian-African relations. According to the report, African leaders should stop depending on Western ideas and solutions and take the lead in interacting with Russia, even if Russia is already invested in Africa.
Sources used for research purposes:
https://pakobserver.net/geopolitical-strife-pak-afghan-tensions-implications/
https://www.deccanherald.com/world/powerful-but-paralysed-the-case-of-un-action-2838433
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