Myanmar Civil War and Its Possible Implication
Since it gained independence in 1948, Myanmar has been a battlefield for civil warfare between its central government and ethnic armed groups. This conflict has worsened following the military coup that occurred in February 2021. It appears that no agreement will be reached soon, which suggests that the nation is moving toward prolonged political instability, economic decline as well as a humanitarian crisis.
The Historical Roots of Myanmar's Internal Conflicts
Myanmar’s civil war can be traced back to its gaining independence from Britain in 1948. Soon after assuming power, ethnic minority armies along all of its borders began to rise against it, fearing domination by the majority Bamar ethnic group who controlled the central government.
For over 70 years, there have been intermittent ceasefires interrupted by fighting between dozens of ethnically-based armed organizations (EAOs) and the military-supported central government.
Moreover, Myanmar also has a long history of military intervention in politics. In 1962, General Ne Win staged a coup d’état that led to an isolated military rule of twenty-six years. The military clung to power for another quarter century until consecutive wins by NLD came in 2012 and 2015.
Widespread Opposition to the 2021 Coup
In February 2021, there was a coup that completely changed the political atmosphere. After tentative reforms and democracy under the NLD regime, the majority of Myanmar’s population refused to backslide into military rule. This resistance led to the emergence of a multi-faceted pro-democracy resistance movement spanning NLD supporters, ethnic minorities, and nationwide anti-coup groups.
In addition, this government formed The National Unity Government (NUG) as well as its armed wing called the People's Defense Force (PDF). By 2022, PDF had expanded rapidly and currently has approximately 65,000 fighters organized in more than 250 units countrywide.
Despite lacking centralized leadership, PDF brigades across ethnic divides came together with one objective: overthrowing the military. In addition, PDF started forging partnerships with established ethnic armed organizations, such as the Kachin Independence Army, that attacked military installations at border points together.
Nevertheless, despite successes on the battlefield itself, it is crucial to note that in terms of manpower strength, equipment possession, financial support, urban areas’ domination, and overseas assistance availability, there is a massive disparity between these forces. The civil war seems to have reached an impasse where neither side can gain a definitive advantage over their opponent.
Controversial Plans for Elections in 2023-2024
Myanmar's 2008 constitution limits declarations of state emergency to two 6-month extensions before requiring an election. This mandated polls by August 2023 at the latest. However, the military regime has delayed this deadline by imposing a further emergency extension until February 2024, giving it more time to try to consolidate control.
Whenever held, elections conducted under military rule are likely to be fraught, with an opposition boycott and threats of violence at polling stations almost guaranteed. The military seeks to use rigged elections to provide a facade of legitimacy and civilian governance. But forced elections on its terms could provoke greater unrest.
International Support as a Potential Game Changer
Increased foreign support for Myanmar's resistance coalition could alter the balance of power on the ground. A new U.S. law enables the supply of resistance with non-lethal aid, although they continue urging the provision of arms and military equipment.
China's stance carries particular influence, given its economic leverage and political backing for the junta. While the regime has shrugged off Western sanctions, diplomatic and economic pressure from regional actors like China and Russia could force concessions. There are tentative signs Beijing may increase engagement with Myanmar to restore stability along its border.
The Unpredictable Trajectory of a Stalemated War
Despite being outgunned, Myanmar's resistance continues gaining territory against the military's estimated 350,000 troops and far superior firepower. However, maintaining unity among diverse ethnic groups while sustaining battlefield momentum will prove enormously challenging.
Meanwhile, the military has a decades-long history of ruthlessly crushing opponents, suggesting its determination to hold onto power regardless of international criticism. Increased use of scorched earth tactics and sham elections could be expected as the regime seeks to reassert control nationwide.
Neighboring countries like Thailand, India, and the 10-member ASEAN bloc could potentially play mediating roles to facilitate dialogue. But the vast power imbalance means the civil war may persist for many more years, absent a substantial shift in conditions on the ground.
Devastating Impacts on Myanmar's Economy and People
The civil war and military rule have already taken a devastating toll on Myanmar's economy and population. GDP shrank an estimated 18% in 2021 alone. Poverty has doubled, internal displacement tops over 450,000 people, and most foreign companies have withdrawn.
Severe shortages of medicines, fertilizers, dollars, and other vital imports have resulted. The country now faces being blacklisted for money laundering and terrorist financing.
If unresolved, the conflict threatens to usher in an extended era of severe economic hardship and human suffering for millions of ordinary Burmese citizens caught in the crossfire.
Conclusion
Myanmar's civil war appears poised to continue for the foreseeable future, given the military regime's determination to hold onto power and the widespread opposition refusing to accept renewed authoritarian rule.
The conflict has fallen into a stalemate but is inflicting grave humanitarian, economic, and social damage. Absent a dramatic change in conditions facilitated by intense international pressure, the country faces entering a dark period defined by prolonged civil war, economic isolation, and intensifying misery.
Sources:
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/myanmar-civil-war-2/
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-civil-war-in-myanmar-no-end-in-sight/
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/myanmar-history-coup-military-rule-ethnic-conflict-rohingya
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/anniversary-05112022202816.html
https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-military-its-last-legs
https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/an-illegitimate-junta-cant-fix-myanmars-broken-economy/
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