Trilateral Defense: Japan, Philippines, US
In a region of tragic crises and geopolitical tensions, and what has seemingly undermined the foundations of ordered civilian governance, the United States, Japan, and the Philippines have forged an alliance in the South China Sea, one of the world’s major economic and strategic thoroughfares, where China’s territorial pretensions have roiled the waters. Time for the so-called United-States Japan-Philippines Alliance in the South China Sea, as it is called, to unfurl its sails ‘Now is the time to act in unison against any coercive use of force,’ US President Joe Biden told leaders in Manila, the Tokyo summit, until now a secret rendezvous, was a long-overdue development, though its announcement last April caught few by surprise. In the turbulent South China Sea and the rest of the Indo-Pacific, economic interests and strategic security have served not to undermine but to reinforce each other, underpinning the ties that bind places like the Philippines, Japan, and the US. The US president specifically cited his country’s ‘ironclad’ commitment to the defense of the Philippines under the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). As the third largest Maritime hydrocarbon resources, by some estimates the South China Sea contains quasi-limitless liquid and gas wealth, and enough fisheries for up to 12 million people ‘We are clear in stating our commitment to respect sovereign rights in exclusive economic zones in accordance with international law, as reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982,’ the leaders wrote in their joint statement ‘Our engagement underscores our unwavering attention to the climate crisis and commitment to accelerate and enhance our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. We are committed to universal representative democracy, the rule of law, human rights, gender equality, and the inherent dignity and worth of all persons.‘ Like an ‘unsinkable’ aircraft carrier, the Philippines, the United States, and Japan are merging together, side by side The leaders’ climate statement underscored the compatibility of interests and values among the three countries at a juncture when global destiny is endangered by ‘great power rivalry’, by which they seemed to mean when civilizational adversaries encroach on the hornet’s nest of an arc of instability encircling vital parts of the world. The ‘unsinkable’ aircraft carrier and their joint security engagement agreement nevertheless showcases multilateralism at its best and its most effective. What Biden, Marcos, and Kishida’s summit authorities and their peoples might not yet fully realize – despite ‘soaring’ US public support for closer alliances and heightened security assistance to Manila, Hanoi, and Jakarta, despite Denmark and the Netherlands and other allies’ contribution of ships to the US carrier strike group ‘Independence-America-Freedom’, for safe passage through the South China Sea beneath China’s overhang until its return to San Diego – what they don’t yet know is that a major 19th-century flagship running aground on a shallow reef in the Mekong Delta seals their fate. It can’t be saved, after all. The new alliance in Manila and Tokyo has changed everything. Economy and security, two of the three existential questions already being asked by the Philippines and many in Japan, now interact – political and military ties, per Biden, accompany ‘a historic economic cooperation agreement between the Philippines, the United States, and Japan. Maritime territorial and geostrategic rivalries, not only between China and the three alliance member states, but throughout the Indo-Pacific, will get averted behind shared sacrifices and risk-taking, unstressed or infrequently put to the test. It will reside in ‘milestones’: one-third of the Philippines’ entire semiconductor supply chain could soon be up and running by 2026; its resilient green infrastructure will link Clark Air Base and Subic Naval Base via key supply chain links and new railroads; the defenses of the maritime ‘filing cabinet’ will come to life in new Pentagon funding of $200 million in 2024 alone to improve airfields, piers, hangars and bomb-proof storage facilities at Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement sites. The US and Japan will not enjoy a privileged position. A cheat sheet on the climate crisis: ways in which the world might transition away from coal Approximately five times as many citizens believe that the United States ought to work more closely with its allies in Asia in the future as those who believe that it ought to distance itself from them. Additionally, five times as many citizens believe that the United States ought to send more ships, troops, and military aircraft to the Philippines in comparison to those who believe that the military ought to do less. This will allow it to survive in the soaring public support for stronger alliances in the United States. In the process of navigating the intricate waters of regional politics, these states have taken a unified stance, which acts as a bulwark against any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by the use of force or manipulation. The might and determination of this trilateral coalition may very well determine the course of events in the South China Sea in the years to come.
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- Aanya Ajmera